Growth May Slow, Not Stop

From the Tennessean (12/30/07): "'We are not having to dig out of such a big hole as some other states,' said David Penn, a Middle Tennessee State University economist who sees questions marks — but no catastrophe — in the economic forecast for the new year."

• "'We are not having to dig out of such a big hole as some other states."
• "We have a diverse industrial base, a huge health-care sector, universities, a competitive banking environment, and we're a transportation hub."
• "Residential real estate should find more of stable footing in the year ahead. Inventories (of homes for sale) are starting to level off on a seasonally adjusted basis.... Low interest rates should ... spur a decent number of sales of existing homes and keep housing supply and demand in balance as 2008 progresses."
  
• Regarding 2008 home sales in the nine-county Nashville area: "We won't see as bad a drop, but it will at best be a break-even year."
  

Liquidity Is the Key to Financial Solution

From the Tennessean (12/27/07), by Albert E. DePrince, Jr.: "Liquidity is the financial oil that keeps a modern economy running smoothly.... Today, the subprime mortgage crisis has drained much of the liquidity from the global financial engine, thus threatening the world's ability to sustain growth. Central bankers now face the daunting task of plugging the leak and restoring liquidity."

Midstate Economic Indicators

The winter issue of Midstate Economic Indicators newsletter ("Housing Slowdown Sinking In") is online. BERC director David Penn writes: "Nashville economic activity slowed to a crawl during the third quarter, with several important indicators turning negative for the first time in several years."

Working-Class Areas Lead Nashville's Foreclosures

From the Tennessean (12/17/07): "In Rutherford County, the foreclosure rate has jumped 156 percent to one in every 189 homes, higher than the national average, according to RealtyTrac. In Sumner County, the foreclosure rate is up 129 percent — to about one in every 234 homes; and in Davidson County, it has nearly doubled to one in every 278 homes. By comparison, only about one in every 530 homes in Williamson County was in foreclosure in the fall. 'Households in some of these areas went more out on a limb financially,' said David Penn, an economist at Middle Tennessee State University. 'The mortgage companies made it easy to do that.'"

Only Economic Constants Are Yin and Yang

From Nashville's City Paper (12/10/07): "David Penn, director of Middle Tennessee State University’s Business and Economic Research Center, said growth slowed in the third quarter and thinks the figures will show slower growth in the fourth quarter. Job growth for the year could be 9,000-10,000 jobs, Penn said."

"Immigrationomics"

Some audio clips on MTSU's website from Dr. Bill Ford, economics professor, on "immigrants' contribution to the national economy."

• immigrationomics1.mp3
• immigrationomics2.mp3
• immigrationomics3.mp3
• immigrationomics4.mp3
• immigrationomics5.mp3
• immigrationomics6.mp3
• immigrationomics7.mp3

The State of the Economy and Prospects for Tax Revenue in Tennessee

Presentation (pdf) by Dr. Albert E. DePrince, Jr., to the Tennessee State Funding Board in Nashville December 12, 2007. Dr. DePrince is a professor of economics and finance at Jennings A. Jones College of Business, Middle Tennessee State University.

Global Commerce Online

In the fall 2007 issue of Global Commerce ("Tennessee and the Dollar: A Suspense Story"), editor Steven Livingston writes: "Five years of remarkably strong state export growth have come to a screeching halt. Tennessee’s performance was not just bad; it was among the worst of the U.S. states."

Current Economic Indicators

For the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro MSA (.xls, 11/26/07)

Nashville Area Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook for the Nashville Area (pdf)
from Tennessee Chamber of Commerce & Industry Business Insider,
p. 3 (10-07)

Local Economy Isn't Bulletproof

From the Tennessean (12-01-07): "'We're going to be affected by the same kind of influences that exist nationally, but to a smaller degree,' said David Penn, director of Middle Tennessee State University's Business & Economic Research Center. Penn cites a slight drop in Nashville-area employment and sales tax collections between the second and third quarters as signs of slower growth. He expects a modest recovery next year in both, after more weakness in the current quarter fueled in part by a ramp-up by builders after the current inventory of homes has been sold off."

Economic Indicators

From the Tennessean (12-01-07): Economic Indicators graphic